The pros
and cons of multiple betting
Bet types: Single bets vs.
multiples bets
Finding value odds
multiple bets
The pre-internet days of
betting on football was a very different experience compared to the vast
variety of bets currently available to wager on. Bets were shop based and in
the case of football many minimum restrictions applied.
If you wished to bet on a home
win, for example, it was not uncommon for a minimum requirement of five matches
to be included in a multiple before the wager was accepted.
Away wins had a minimum
restriction requiring trebles and single bets were only usually available on
televised matches. The reason cited for these restrictions often included fears
of match fixing.
Finding value odds
Value betting is at the heart
of profitable betting and the concept is readily illustrated by a coin toss.
Unlike sporting contests, where
a multitude of factors combine to determine the odds for a particular outcome,
the odds of say Heads appearing in a fair coin toss is accurately known in advance.
The odds include the bookmaker’s margin, which in the
case of a multiple, is compounded and works in favour of the bettor.
The probability of tossing a
head is 0.5 and over time the proportion of Heads or Tails will tend towards
50%. Pricing such a simple contest requires little skill and the fair price for
calling a Head correctly is 2.0 in decimal odds.
However, as illustrated in the
article How do betting odds work, bookmakers will include a margin in their
price by offering a slightly inferior pay out to ensure their long term profit.
The price offered for a Head to be tossed using a fair coin will always by
slightly less than 2.0 depending upon the size of the bookmaker’s applied
margin.
Whilst the true odds for a coin
toss are known and a margin can be applied to ensure profitability for the
bookmaker, there is no similar degree of certainty when estimating the correct
prices for a football match.
In a football match for
example, a true even money chance may be priced at 2.1 and consistently
spotting these opportunities guarantees a long-term profit for the bettor.
However, betting on singles has only a limited profit potential.
You can bet $10 to win $10 and
you may well win 50% of the time, but what about betting to $10
to win $1,000 or $10,000?
The pros of multiple betting
The key advantage of mutliples
over singles is the large returns that can be made from a relatively small
stake.
Combining three selections at
odds of 2.00, for example, in a single treble and staking $10, returns $80,
which includes the stake, if all selections are successful and this rises to
$320, if five selections are similarly combined.
Increase the number of selections
or their respective odds and much larger wins are possible, if combined in a
multiple bet.
As explained above, the odds
include the bookmaker’s margin. In the case of a multiple, the in-built margin
is compounded and works in favour of the bettor.
Three true even money events,
for example, combined in a treble and priced at 2.1 have a 12.5% chance of
occurring with a pay-out of $93 for a stake of $10.
So assuming such value wagers
can be regularly sourced, the use of multiples can enhance returns significantly.
A word of caution
It is important to remember
though that a single defeat leads to a losing multiple.
Carolina Panthers, for example,
were greatly favoured on the money line to continue their unbeaten season when
travelling to Atlanta with a 14-0 record last season, but it was their less
fancied divisional rivals who took the win, 20-13.
Due to natural variation, these true even money chances cannot be guaranteed to arrive and combine with metronomic regularity, even though 12.5% of such wagers will be successful in the long term.
Due to natural variation, these true even money chances cannot be guaranteed to arrive and combine with metronomic regularity, even though 12.5% of such wagers will be successful in the long term.
Even when a bettor is confident
in their judgement, using multiples to enhance their edge will be an uneven
journey, with frequent small losses and sparse but large wins.
For those bettors enticed by
the potential of larger gains for a small stake when betting in multiples, the
advice is clear.
Use a bookmaker who operates to
small margins and make sure you keep up to date with latest news and
information, as late injury or adverse weather can result in significant odds
movements.
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